OPEC+ cuts and demand woes keep oil prices in narrow trading range

Oil prices have remained in a narrow $75 to $90 a barrel trading range since the end of 2022, as the OPEC+ group continues to keep supply off the market but often-resurfacing concerns about global oil demand have dampened bullish sentiment.

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After spiking to above $100 a barrel in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, Brent Crude prices have traded between $75 and $90 per barrel since the end of 2022, LSEG data cited by Reuters showed on July 12.

While the OPEC+ alliance is keeping a floor under oil prices with its continued policy to withhold some supply from the market, the greater spare capacity of its members has been reassuring traders that the group could handle a sudden outage in production. The larger spare capacity has kept prices in check even after a second war erupted in 2023, in the Middle East, no less.

OPEC+ has largely managed to keep oil in a range of around $80 per barrel for the past 20 months.

It has moved to act with more cuts when prices dipped in the $70s for longer periods of time.

But prices haven’t been close to reaching the triple digits since the end of 2022, largely due to concerns about the global economy, rising interest rates, and anxiety over tepid demand for oil in the world’s top crude importer, China.

“Today we see a well-supplied oil market with a rather pronounced stagnation of demand in the Western world and China,” Norbert Ruecker, an analyst at Julius Baer, told Reuters.

Earlier this week, ING said that OPEC+ oil production policy is still the critical factor in determining the state of the oil markets. ING expects oil prices will peak in the third quarter before trending lower towards the end of the year and into 2025. Their forecast for Brent crude stands at $88 per barrel for the third quarter of 2024, dropping to $80 per barrel for the full year 2025. The key risk to this outlook is if OPEC+ decides to maintain the full extent of its cuts, which could prolong the market deficit into 2025.