U.S. crude oil exports to peak in 2024

Crude exports from U.S. ports have averaged 4.2 million barrels per day so far this year, up a mere 3.5% Y/Y compared to a robust 13.5% growth in 2023. This year’s growth clip is the lowest since 2015, when the country lifted a 40-year federal ban on the export of domestic crude.

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“U.S. crude exports are plateauing due to a combination of slowing supply growth and easing demand – particularly from Asia this year,” Matt Smith, an analyst at energy data firm Kpler, has told Reuters.

U.S. crude exports to Europe have declined 1% as buyers have preferred cheaper regional and West African oil. Interestingly, Nigeria’s Dangote refinery has been the only major new market for U.S. crude since its start-up early this year.

“Dangote is an outlier when it comes to new refining capacity, in that it is running on predominantly light sweet crude – from Nigeria or the U.S.,” Kpler’s Smith said. “New refining capacity is being built predominantly in OPEC+ countries or Asia, two regions where light and medium sour barrels are more prevalent,” Smith added.

Meanwhile, U.S. oil production is set to grow just 2.3% in the current year as shale producers stick to production discipline and returning capital to shareholders. High decline rates for shale wells usually set in soon after commissioning, meaning extra well completions are required to offset declines from existing wells if output is to be maintained. Unfortunately, StanChart has reported that the horizontal rig count started to decline sharply in early 2023 and is currently 20% below its post-pandemic peak after flatlining for the past six months. The analysts point out that whereas the completion of previously drilled wells and technical change provide an offset, a significant fall in activity, more often than not, leads to a lagged decline in growth.