The share of Russia and OPEC countries on the world oil market will increase in the coming years and will exceed 50% by 2050, according to the annual report World Energy Outlook 2023, published on the website of the International Energy Agency (IEA).
“OPEC and Russia’s combined share of global oil supply remains between 45-48% to 2030 but it rises above 50% by 2050 as Saudi Arabia increases production,” the agency’s analysts believe.
However, in their opinion, by 2050 “there is a gradual normalization of the international situation in countries subject to sanctions, notably Iran and Venezuela, and production from these countries rises.”
Oil production in the United States in 2022 totaled 7.5 million barrels per day, by 2030 it will increase by 2 million barrels per day, but by 2050 it will decrease again to 8.5 million barrels. Brazil and Guyana should also make significant contributions to the supply mix, with the latter expected to increase production to a peak of about 2 million barrels per day in the mid-2030s, “before it declines slightly,” the report says.
Analysts estimate demand in 2022 as below the level of pre-pandemic 2019, and this decline is due to a sharp decline in demand in road transport, they believe. The forecast, based on plans that were already adopted by the countries, states that demand will be 102 million barrels per day in the late 2020s, but by 2050 it should fall to 97 million barrels per day. This will happen due to an even greater decline in demand in the transport industry, including aviation. However, a scenario, that takes into account climate goals that were declared by the countries, suggests that by 2050 demand will fall even lower, to 55 million barrels per day.
The report’s authors stressed that oil demand has not stopped growing this year and already reached a new monthly record in June. In the meantime, in the first half of the year, the growth in production around the world significantly compensated for its reduction by the OPEC+ group, which includes Russia, the authors say. “Non-OPEC+ increases in supply are expected to be limited during the rest of 2023 despite further cuts by OPEC+ in July and August,” the report says.
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